ASSOCIATED DRIVERS OF DEFORESTATION DYNAMIC IN OPARA FOREST RESERVE, OYO STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

Forest ecosystems play a critical role in climate regulation, biodiversity conservation, and socioeconomic sustainability. However, rapid deforestation driven by anthropogenic activities threatens these benefits, particularly in tropical regions. Therefore, this study examines deforestation pattern and its associated drivers in Opara Forest Reserve, Nigeria. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery between 1984 and 2025 were obtained, and structured questionnaire were used to elicit information on the factors influencing forest cover changes. Maximum Likelihood Algorithm was used to classify forest cover dynamics into Land Use Land Cover (LULC). Logistic regression was used to evaluate deforestation drivers from 200 stakeholder surveys from forest edged communities. Three LULC were identified; forest, farmland and non-forest.  About 56.3% net forest loss (1984–2025) were observed, with deforestation peaking at 2.7% annually (2013–2021). Forest cover declined from 71.3% (1984) to 27.1% (2021), while farmland and non-forest areas expanded significantly. The ecological impacts of this transformation align with threshold theory, demonstrating that forest degradation below 34% cover triggers disproportionate biodiversity loss and ecosystem service decline. Agricultural expansion (11.867 Odds Ratio), demand for timber (3.577 Odds Ratio), and lack of law enforcement (2.467 Odds Ratio) contribute significantly to deforestation in the Okpara Forest Reserve at p < 0.05). Notably, the study documents spatial variations in deforestation perceptions and solution preferences among local communities, highlighting the complex interplay between ecological thresholds and human dimensions of forest management. These findings contribute to both theoretical and applied dimensions of forest conservation. The empirical evidence of nonlinear deforestation trajectories advances our understanding of ecological thresholds in tropical forest systems.

Keywords:  Conservation, Deforestation, Remote Sensing, Geographic Information System, Land-Use Change, Opara Forest Reserve, and Forest Governance.