SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN NIGERIA

Abstract

This study examines the impact of socio-economic development on unemployment in Nigeria, using secondary data from the Central Bank of Nigeria's Statistical Bulletin and the National Bureau of Statistics for the period 1991-2022. A linear model was developed to specify unemployment as a function of inflation rate, real GDP growth rate, industrial value added to GDP, and government social expenditure on community services. Preliminary analyses conducted include descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, and bounds testing for cointegration. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model technique was employed for model estimation. Findings revealed that inflation has a minimal short- and long-term effect on unemployment, while industrial value added significantly impacts unemployment with a delayed effect. Government social expenditure positively influences employment, reducing unemployment in both the short and long run. Additionally, GDP growth is linked to lower unemployment rates. Based on the findings, the study recommends that policymakers prioritize industrial expansion and government social expenditure as effective strategies for reducing unemployment in Nigeria, both in the short and long term. Additionally, fostering economic growth through supportive policies is essential for creating job opportunities and promoting sustainable development.

Keywords:  community service, employment, job creation, social expenditure, sustainable development,